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Free Agent Profile: Ted Lilly

Ted Lilly

This free agent class is thin on everything, and starting pitching is no exception. You have the premium arms, like Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and then you have the second-tier veterans such as Gil Meche, and the subject of this profile, Ted Lilly. Lilly has a few things going for him and a few things working against him. On his side are numbers such as his 15 victories, a 2.45ERA in September, and a .202BAA when facing lefties, but the enemy is powerful, with strong evidence against Lilly such as the fact that he’s never pitched 200 innings in a season. All this will factor into the contract that he gets (and Lilly is demanding quite a bit for his services) as well as which team signs him.

For a closer look, here are the numbers on Ted Lilly for 2006…

  • Record: 15-13
  • ERA: 4.31
  • WHIP: 1.43
  • BA Against: .254
  • Games: 32 (32 starts)
  • Innings Pitched: 181.2 — that’s 5.2 innings per outing, which isn’t great
  • Hits: 179
  • Runs: 98 (87 earned)
  • Walks: 81
  • Strikeouts: 160
  • Homeruns allowed: 28

Those numbers aren’t bad, but they’re far from great. Which is exactly what Ted Lilly is: a middle-of-the-road starting pitcher who’s slightly more valuable because he’s a southpaw.

Here are Lilly’s situational numbers (Opponents BA)…

  • Bases Empty: .231
  • Runners On: .283 — pretty big jump with guys on base
  • RISP: .246
  • RISP w/2 outs: .176
  • Bases Loaded: .300

Once again, nothing that is strikingly great, nor anything that is surprisingly poor. More evidence that Lilly is just an average starting pitcher. You’ve probably got all the information you need on Lilly, but…

Here are his splits for this season…(ERA/WHIP/BAA if applicable)…

  • Vs. Lefthanded hitters: .202 — great
  • Vs. Righthanded hitters: .265 — not so great68 walks vs. Righthanded hitters compared to just 13 vs. Lefties as well
  • Home (Rogers Centre): 4.08/1.47/.245
  • Away: 4.57/1.38/.263
  • Day Games: 4.37/1.49/.244
  • Night Games: 4.29/1.40/.258

Here’s one more interesting factoid about Lilly…

This graph is from Baseball Prospectus, and it shows Lilly’s performance in each of the 5 categories against the performance of other starting pitchers. For example a 60% rating means that the player is better than 60% of Major Leaguers. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the stats, here’s the definitions for the ones I’ll be using…

  • K stands for strikeouts
  • BB stands for walks
  • GB/FB is the ratio of ground-balls to fly-balls

Several things can be taken from this chart…

  1. Lilly is a pure fly-ball pitcher, which should make teams with hitters’ parks nervous — GB/FB = about 15%
  2. Lilly often struggles with his control — BB = 20%
  3. Lilly relies rather heavily on strikeouts — K = about 75%

Those numbers could either help him or hurt him depending on where he goes, especially if the team’s ballpark either severely favors or opposes pitchers.

Alright, that’s about enough numbers and charts, you get the point; Lilly is a #2-4 starter depending on what team signs him and that team’s needs in terms of starting pitching.

Where is Ted Lilly most likely to land?

There are several teams that could use a middle-of-the-pack starter like Ted Lilly, and that could favor him over other tier-2 starters because he’s a southpaw. They include the Yankees, Cubs, Mariners, Giants, Padres, Dodgers, and possibly a few others. Lilly is demanding a 4year deal worth 40Million, and that might take several of those teams out of the running. If there’s big money at stake, guess who usually wins?

My prediction: Ted Lilly moves down the East Coast to the Bronx, joining the Yankees rotation after signing the deal he wants — 4/40.

Stats prediction: Lilly should do about as well as he did in 2006 for the Yankees in 2007, with numbers like 14-12 with a 4.50ERA and a 1.50WHIP.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

There’s a change in this week’s schedule of free agent profiles…

Thursday: No Profile

Friday: Jose Guillen

Saturday: Joe Borowski

Sunday: Pedro Feliz

___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

Today’s moves…

The Angels agreed to terms with Gary Matthews Jr. adding yet another solid offensive player to their outfield, while bolstering their defense in centerfield. The contract is 5yrs for 50Million.

The Dodgers confirmed their signing of Juan Pierre to a 5year deal worth 45Million.

The Devil Rays released righthanded pitcher Doug Waechter after he struggled to the tune of 1-4 with a 6.64ERA in 11 appearances this past season.

________________________________________________________________

Trivia Time!

Yesterday’s question was…

Rich Aurilia has made one non-baseball-related TV appearance, guest starring on an ABC soap opera in 2003. Which soap opera was it and what role did Aurilia play in that episode?

The correct answer…

Aurilia appeared in a non-speaking-role as juror #9 during a trial on ABC’s General Hospital.

Today’s question is…

Ted Lilly has played for 4 teams in his MLB career; which of the following is not one of them?

  • New York Yankees
  • Oakland Athletics
  • Montreal Expos
  • Los Angeles Dodgers
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2 Responses to “Free Agent Profile: Ted Lilly”

  1. ndpiotwu

    hbmbonny hjtwdu zxbkrnccwa bfntdczdw

  2. Ted Lilly is the fucking man! Look how well he has pitched for the Cubs you fucking morons!


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